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November 03, 2008

Thoughts on Election Eve - How is This Race Even Close?

As we head into the election tomorrow, the media is telling Republicans to brace themselves for a landslide victory for Senator Obama.  Landslide has, apparently, now been defined as 300+ electoral votes.  But, while the media and the left fawn over the sheer majesty of Obama, I can't help but find myself surprised that the race is as so close.

Consider this:

Two years ago, before we even knew who the candidates were, it was commonly held knowledge that it would be practically impossible for a Republican to win the White House in 2008.  The Republican Congress had done everything they could to destroy the party's claim of fiscal responsibility and ended up turning control back over to the democrats in a crushing 2006 congressional election.  Statistically speaking, Republicans had the most unpopular president of all time in office and the president's legacy, the war in Iraq, seemed to be a doomed effort.  The democrats couldn't ask for a better stage to win the White House.

Add to this that the democrat nominee is one of the most charismatic, inspiring, and likable candidates ever.  Further, the fact that his election would be a landmark in our country's history because of his race.

In response, the Republicans nominate a 72 year old white guy who the Republican base doesn't like.  That nominee then selects the governor from a non-contiguous state, a governor whom no one had ever heard of until a few months ago and a selection few like except the Republican base.

Add to this mix the fact that the democrat candidate raises more money for his campaign than has ever been raised by a campaign.

The recipe above is indeed a recipe for a landslide democrat victory.  It should be impossible for the Republicans to win.  But on the eve of the election, though Obama has a clear advantage, the race is delightfully close. Going into election day, Obama has an average poll lead of less than 5% in the key battleground states of Florida, Virgina and Ohio.  In Florida, the average is 1.8%.

Obama may win with a huge electoral victory, but the electoral numbers will not tell the story of how tight this race truly was.  Less than 5% of voters, and in some cases, less than 2%, in a handful of states will be the deciding factor.

Democrats have every reason they could hope for to win this election, but rather than a being the mere formality on the way to coronation that they had hoped for, it is going to be incredibly close, regardless of who wins.  Despite democrats having everything going their way, there are still enough of us out there who aren't buying the bill of goods the democrats are selling to cause this election to come down to the wire.

THAT gives me hope for the Future.

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Comments

G, you sound like a man that needs a hug.

Well, let's see, Mr. G. How could this race even be close? An African-American is running for President, Mr. G. A mere 40 years after MLK was gunned down by a white man because he was black, we have a black man running for President.

Given some of the comments that we've heard coming from certain Americans these last few months, I'm surprised to Hell it isn't even closer.

Spin it hard, Mr. G, spin it hard. Try to make a loss sound as good as a win. Do it.

Friggin' incredible.

.

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