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May 07, 2007

Romney Scores, Thompson Misses

Two quick items on the Republican candidate for president front:

Romney beats everyone in New Hampshire primary poll

These poll results are certainly the exception to the rule compared to every other poll out there which has Romney at about 10%.  However, this SurveyUSA poll showing Romney at 32% is New Hampshire may be the first of many polls indicating a jump in Romney's numbers.  Romney has gotten a ton of press from his performance in the first Republican debate and this can only result in good things happening to his poll numbers.

On a side note, I will be curious to see what will happen if Thompson and Gingrich don't jump into the race.  Between the two of them they are carrying about 20% in the polls.  My guess is that much of their base, Conservatives, will shift to Romney which could automatically place Romney over McCain and neck and neck with Guiliani.  That is, of course, assuming Thompson and Gingrich don't jump in.

Thompson Speech a Yawner

Thompson gave a speech in California that I caught on C-SPAN yesterday.  The thought I had was that for all the hype he's generating, Thompson sure can be boring.  I was delighted to see that Robert Novak agrees with me.  In the speech Thompson sure did not appear to be a guy running for president, strengthening my hunch that he is not going to get into the race at all.  Again, this could only mean good things for Romney.


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Mr G... The former Governor of the state next to New Hampshire is doing well in New Hampshire. Gee. Go figure.

(See also: Dukakis - 1988, Tsongas - 1992)

The race in New Hampshire is for 2nd place. It's a foregone conclusion that Romney wins the first primary.

I don't deny that Romney has more name recognition in the Northeast but I don't draw the conclusions from that which you do.

This isn't the first poll conducted in NH, but it is the first Romney wins.

And I think you're reading a little too much into the neighboring states idea. How many Floridians do you think can name the current, let alone the former governors of LA, MS, AL, and GA?

I don't think NH is as wrapped up as you seem to think it is. McCain polls very very well there.

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